Page 11 - City of Greensboro Data Book

Population Projections
Population projections help determine the scale of anticipated growth that the Comprehensive Plan should
consider over the next 20 years, the intended life span of the plan. Projections use current growth trends to
forecast population growth if those trends remain consistent over time. They are not meant to predict what
will happen in the future.

The North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM) produces population projections at the
county level that incorporate recent trends in fertility, mortality, net migration, and historical trends in
population change. The chart below shows the counties most representative of the ten most populous cities in
the state. The OSBM projections show Guilford County with a modest percentage of population growth from
2015 to 2037 (15.9%) compared to other populous areas of the state. The state is projected to grow by 25%
over the same time period. Between 2015 and 2037, Guilford County is projected to grow by over 80,000
people.

Population Projections, Select Counties, 2015 to 2037

Source: NC Office of State Budget and Management

City population projections were prepared using the Forecast tool in Microsoft Office Excel. This analysis
factors in historical population, without consideration of fertility, mortality, or migration. Using population
estimates from 2010 to 2016, population has been projected for 2017 to 2037 for the ten most populous cities
in North Carolina. Based on this analysis, the population of Durham is projected to surpass that of Greensboro
by the year 2025.

DRAFT 7 FEBRUARY 23, 2018