Page 21 - The City of Greensboro Conditions and Trends

CITY OF GREENSBORO COMPREHENSIVE PLAN CONDITIONS & TRENDS

Transportation: The New Mobility

The Trend

The streets, sidewalks, and trails of the transportation network are among the most basic and important of city-provided
services and are constantly in the public eye. Broadly, transportation is seeing change in two areas. The first is development
of new technology, particularly the growing development of autonomous vehicles and the associated changes they will
bring, but also “smart” streets and utilities and changes in communication that enable the sharing economy and more
timely service delivery. The second is the continuing growth of “complete streets” design, an approach that intentionally
seeks to balance the needs of people using all travel modes (walking, bicycling, mass-transit, autos, trucks, rail, etc.) by
providing safe, convenient, and appealing transportation facilities, appropriate to the adjacent land uses. Taken together
they will require and enable a more flexible approach to transportation planning.

Background

Autonomous Vehicles and Technological Changes

The arrival of autonomous or self-driving vehicles is becoming widely accepted in transportation, though the actual date
this will happen is uncertain. Cars and trucks that drive themselves will change how people shop, commute, and go about
their daily lives. Other technology will combine with autonomous vehicles to create even greater changes.

A report from the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis examines different emerging
technologies that will likely work together to have a major impact on how we move and build: the “Three Revolutions” of
shared mobility, electrification, and automation. Predictions of how these changes will affect land use and day-to-day life
vary widely, and taking best advantage of them will require a high level of awareness. Many anticipate that the need for
parking may be reduced, as autonomous vehicles will be able to deliver multiple passengers, or run errands such as picking
up goods ordered online without parking. The timeline for the general use of autonomous vehicles is uncertain; estimates
range from 10 to 20 years.

As an example, one area likely to see improvement from autonomous vehicle usage is e-commerce and logistics. Changes in
supply chain operations and shopping habits are increasing local shipping activities. The “just-in-time” shipping paradigm
that has led companies to warehouse only minimal product and the quick delivery of items ordered online makes reliable
on-time shipments considerably more important than they used to be. “Last mile” shipping concerns include mobility and
safety and need to be addressed both for freight and for other users sharing the roadway. These issues are of particular
importance to Greensboro, which is both a freight hub and a manufacturing/fabrication center.

Transit

Although current ridership levels are substantially higher than in 2000, the decline in local and regional bus ridership since
2014 mirrors declines in transit ridership nationwide. Some of this decline may be attributable to recovery from the Great
Recession, but many transit analysts and advocates also point to the increasing popularity of ride-sharing and ride-hailing
services as replacing trips that otherwise would have been made via transit.

The advent of autonomous vehicles may further depress transit numbers by offering more flexible, personalized service.
However, others forecast that smaller, autonomous buses offer a flexible and economic mobility option. The reduction in
costs brought by switching to electric buses will help reduce the operational costs of a fleet of smaller, more numerous

DRAFT -21- March 15, 2018