Page 18 - The City of Greensboro Conditions and Trends

CITY OF GREENSBORO COMPREHENSIVE PLAN CONDITIONS & TRENDS

townhouses; multiplexes; live-work units; and “granny flats.” The typical zoning codes of many cities (including Greensboro)
and the financing limitations of many lending institutions have allowed construction of very few units of these traditional
housing types over the past 75 years. An important aspect of the Missing Middle range of housing types is that they can be
very effective at supplying dwelling units that appeal both to customers in the influential segment of the market and meet
the needs of low-income households with limited options.

Location has always been an important factor affecting housing values, but the types of residential locations in high
demand is changing significantly. Demand for auto-oriented suburban development with single-family detached homes on
large lots, often located many miles from centers of employment or basic services, has waned significantly. By contrast,
demand has risen sharply for compact walkable urban neighborhoods with a mix of housing types and price ranges that are
well served by mass transit and are near to a wide range of employment and services. A 2016 US Census Bureau study
observes that revitalization has “replaced suburbanization as the urban trend of note” and that “demographic groups that
formerly would have headed straight to the suburbs now seek to stay in the city.”

Investment and change brings many benefits including: improved housing upkeep; lower crime rates; more retail and
services; and improved living conditions. However, it can also bring negative impacts: marginalization and displacement of
poor and minority households; unequal distribution of social and economic benefits; inadequate opportunities for shaping
neighborhood changes; and general exclusion (real or perceived) from the neighborhood’s changed social and cultural
fabric. Failing to meet the housing and other basic needs of Greensboro’s poorest households could harm its long-term
vitality at least as much as a shortage of high-end housing stock. PolicyLink’s National Equity Atlas provides extensive data
and charts showing the high economic toll taken by inequitable employment and income in America’s metropolitan areas.

What This Means for Greensboro
Demographic changes are likely to be the primary drivers of demand for most segments of the housing market in
Greensboro over the PlanIt GSO planning horizon. The extent to which Greensboro’s housing market differs from national
and state level trends will probably be influenced by these local circumstances:

Slower rate of population growth Higher unemployment rate
Slower increase in population density Higher and increasing poverty rate
Slower rate of per capita income growth Increasing median age

Over 50% of Greensboro households now rent their homes, so destigmatizing rentership becomes an increasingly
important aspect of promoting fair, affordable, housing options and quality neighborhoods.

The slower rate of growth and lower overall demand for new housing in Greensboro may lead to more renovation and
retrofitting of existing dwellings and neighborhoods than in peer cities such as Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham. Sustained
lack of investment and lower property values have left many of Greensboro’s traditional walkable urban neighborhoods
vulnerable to continued neglect and decline or the negative effects that can occur with revitalization. A stronger market for
renovation in Greensboro may trigger a greater need for measures to prevent those negative effects.

Crucial challenges for Greensboro will include promotion of housing options at a wide range of price points, and finding a
balance that allows neighborhoods to attract new investment and thrive, yet protects long-term residents from erosion of
social connections, spiraling housing costs, and displacement. As actual market conditions develop over time, it will be
important for Greensboro to continue applying appropriate housing standards and prioritizing adequate resources for
proactive code compliance measures, in order to ensure that all dwelling units are maintained in a safe, healthy, and
attractive condition, regardless of type, scale, location, or occupancy.

DRAFT -18- March 15, 2018