Page 34 - The City of Greensboro Conditions and Trends

CITY OF GREENSBORO COMPREHENSIVE PLAN CONDITIONS & TRENDS

Store closures are also attributed to overdevelopment. “We are extremely over-retailed,” says Christopher Zahas, a real
estate economist and urban planner in Portland, Oregon, “Filling a million square feet is a tall order.” The number and floor
space of retail stores in the US far outnumber that of any other First World country. Retailers are making adjustments to
scale back this excess.

What This Means for Greensboro

Retail accounts for eight million jobs nationwide. The closing of stores impacts employment with the loss of low-income
sales and cashier jobs that may shift to warehouse distribution and fulfillment centers, which is linked to e-commerce. An
increase in skilled labor to support e-commerce will be in the form of software engineers, developers, marketing analysts,
and social media teams. Greensboro is home to multiple colleges, universities, and technical schools that could capitalize on
these training opportunities.

Vacant retail space presents a challenge for communities, including Greensboro, to develop plans for empty sites and
particularly for large complexes like shopping malls. Fulfillment centers are only one answer. Former retail spaces are
transitioning into office space, mixed use commercial, residential, and even churches and health facilities nationwide. Large
complexes are being demolished and re-envisioned as parks and community gardens. Large land tracts offer the
opportunity to create more walkable areas that combine a mixture of residential and commercial. The demand for retail is
unlikely to increase significantly given predictions of slow population and income growth, so new retail will take market
share away from existing retail, and establishing other uses to fill vacant space will become more important.

The City’s Economic Development and Business Support (EDBS) Office states that there is an inventory of such sites
available for redevelopment across the City. Greensboro can facilitate redevelopment through tools like its Long-Term
Vacant Big Box Revitalization Loan Program, which provides a source of capital to credit-worthy developers willing to invest
in empty retail sites larger than 25,000 square feet. While redeveloping retail sites is challenging for a variety of reasons
such as costs, existing infrastructure, and market forces, understanding and acknowledging these hurdles can go a long way
to ensuring a smooth and successful commercial redevelopment project.

As Greensboro looks to the future of retail, a 2016 Nielsen Report provides a glimpse into some of the emerging trends:

 Stores will either become one-size shopping experiences or become smaller scale quick stops.
 Stores will offer more of an “experience” for shoppers while also providing a place to socialize and gather. Grocery
stores are offering beer tasting experiences and children’s stores, like American Girl, offer dining.
 Technology will play an important role by providing touch screen ordering and mobile coupons.
 Brands will open premium stores to offer exclusive items and may partner with celebrity names.
 Dominant technology companies will be establishing a footprint outside the tech world through retail stores.
 Deep discount stores will maintain continued success, but low prices alone may not be enough.

Offering variety in shopping presents the opportunity for Greensboro to create interesting new places and capitalize on
existing distinctive places. Walkable shopping areas and locally-owned stores that sell unique products can heighten this
experience. Greensboro is fortunate to have a vibrant downtown. The attention to redevelopment of our downtown
demonstrates that providing new and interesting businesses can build on a growing interest in living and working in an
urban environment and create a strong city.

DRAFT -34- March 15, 2018